Speaking at this week's Management Briefing Seminars in Traverse City, MI, Toyota advanced powertrain program manager Justin Ward reiterated the company's plans to offer hybrid drive systems in every one of its model lines by the end of the next decade. Toyota already has more vehicles with hybrid systems than anyone else, but will need next-generation systems to support larger vehicles like the Tundra pickup, assuming it is still building full-size trucks in 2020. On the subject of fuel cell systems, Ward described the progress the company has made on efficiency (and hence range) as well as performance and durability. However, cost and durability issues still have a way to go and there is the whole issue of hydrogen production and distribution.

On the topic of plug-in vehicles, Ward showed a healthy dose of skepticism. According to Ward, in spite of studies showing that 70 percent of commutes are less than 40 miles per day, having plug-ins with a range of only 40 miles would only cover about 35 percent of total miles traveled. The energy required to charge plug-in vehicles also poses problems. Plug-in proponents point to most vehicles being plugged in at night and taking advantage of off-peak generation and lower costs. Ward told his audience that a study of night time generation indicates that the vast majority of it comes from coal fired power plants. Until carbon sequestration becomes mainstream at power plants the use of coal generated electricity, regardless of time of day won't have as much impact on CO₂ as plug-in advocates would like.

[Source: Automotive News - Sub. req'd]

Listen in to a fascinating conversation that took place yesterday on green car politics, featured on the radio show, "Your Call." (KALW, 91.7 FM, San Francisco, CA). The show gave me a chance to discuss some of my research on "The Clean Car Movement," and also featured Meghan Sinott (Organizer for the Car Free Cities Conference in Portland, OR), Michou Olivera (Co-Owner of Luscious Garage, San Francisco), and Russ Heimerich (Spokesman for California Bureau of Automotive Affairs Drive Healthy Campaign).

Some of the topics we discussed include whether green cars obscure public transportation alternatives, who defines what a "green" car is, and what alternatives exist today for consumers looking for the greenest possible options. Near the end of the show, Michou Olivera, who also repairs muscle cars on the weekends, gives a strong defense for the continued use of the internal combustion engine. I guess she never drove a Tesla....

Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama has proposed a new ten-year $150 billion energy plan today in Michigan. A large part of the plan centers around transportation -- both the use of petroleum and the types of cars we are to drive in the future. For automakers, $4 billion in loans and loan guarantees would be made available for PHEV development, with one-million of the vehicles to be ready for sale by 2015. For consumers, a $7,000 tax credit would be offered for their purchase of said vehicle. Also, in a more short-term effort, Obama proposes that the U.S. sells some seventy-million barrels of oil from America's strategic petroleum reserve.

While those PHEVs are being developed, Obama's plan would increase fuel economy standards 4-percent per year. What's more, Obama would mandate at least 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels by 2030 while requiring that fuel producers reduce their fuel's carbon emissions by 5 percent within 5 years and 10 percent within 10 years. To make those biofuels have as large an impact as possible, all new vehicles would be required to have flex-fuel capability within four years.

Lastly, the entire White House fleet will be converted to plug‐ins within one year (does this include the new presidential limo that will debut in January?) and half of all cars purchased by the federal government will be plug‐in hybrids or all‐electric by 2012. See the entire plan in .pdf form at this link.

[Source: Barack Obama - .pdf]

A row of Saturn Vue PHEVs in Milford's building 16 garage

GM may have been late to the party when it came to hybrids, but they are now throwing resources at a bunch of different parallel paths that including electric drive. There are already cars and CUVs with mild hybrid systems and full-size SUVs with Two-Mode hybrid systems. Later this fall pickup trucks and Saturn Vues will also get the Two-Mode system. Then there is of course the E-Flex Chevy Volt. Sometime around the end of 2009 GM's first plug-hybrid should debut also in the shape of the Vue. At the Plug-In 2008 conference Larry Nitz, the Executive Director of the hybrid powertrain engineering at GM provided an updated on the Vue PHEV program. After initiating development with nickel metal hydride batteries, the team based in Building 16 at the Milford proving ground now has 11 plug-in Vues running with lithium ion batteries. If the PHEV Vue makes it by the end of next year it will likely be the first commercially available plug-in hybrid from a major carmaker. The Vue is expected to have about 10 miles of electric driving range on a full charge.

[Source: GM Fastlane Blog]

"Plug-In 2008: A Short Drive to Tomorrow" is the world's first convention dedicated exclusively to plug-in hybrid technology. The event tales place next week, July 21-24, in San Jose, CA.

See the full agenda of speakers and further details here.

The convention is a testament to how quickly plug-In hybrid technology is coming of age. It was only in 2004 that a group of curious mechanics decided to see what would happen if they installed a larger battery in their Toyota Prius. They succeeded in boosting the gas mileage to an average of 100 mpg. In the short years that followed, the technology has gathered support from major decision-makers and media pundits around the country. These mechanics helped spawn the budding industry of plug-in hybrid conversion companies and, quite possibly, nudged major industry players in this direction. Of course, we now know these legendary tinkerers as the founders of the plug-in hybrid advocacy group, CalCars.

Next week should be exciting. I will most likely be there as well, since I am currently writing my Ph.D. dissertation on the "Clean Car Movement." As a new member of the AutoblogGreen team, I look forward to bringing our readers the latest news on the most innovative technology and the people behind it.

Michael Morris, Chairman and CEO of American Electric Power, believes that the U.S. electrical grid is capable of supporting up to 60 million plug-in hybrid vehicles right now. In a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, the chief of the biggest electricity supplier in the United States said that up to 20 percent of the U.S. vehicle fleet could be switched over to plug-in capability and the grid would be fine. Like other proponents of plug-in vehicles, Morris feels that PHEVs would actually help improve load balancing on the grid if they are plugged in during off-peak hours. Of course, getting the maximum benefit from this would require large numbers of plug-ins, as well as implementation of smart meters that could optimize charging during those off-peak times while limiting the load during the day. Such meters could also potentially support vehicle-to-grid technology. Ford is currently testing a plug-in version of the Escape hybrid with Southern California Edison while GM plans to introduce a plug-in version of the Saturn Vue 2-Mode hybrid in late 2009, followed by the Volt in 2010. Toyota will also start fleet tests of a plug-in Prius in 2010.

[Source: Ward's Auto World]

By the middle of the next decade Mercedes-Benz wants its entire lineup to be able to operate entirely free of petroleum. The German giant is working on a variety of technologies that will help provide crude oil free transport such as battery electrics, fuel cells and highly efficient internal combustion engines that can operate on biofuels. Mercedes has recently been letting European journalists sample some of these new powertrains at a test facility in Spain.

The F700 concept that debuted last fall in Frankfurt is powered by a turbocharged DiesOtto engine. The DiesOtto is Mercedes' branding for a combined HCCI and spark ignition engine that provides nearly the same efficiency as a diesel without the need for the expensive after-treatment systems. This and conventional diesel engines can run on biofuels and Mercedes hopes to launch the DiesOtto in production by 2010. Mercedes is also currently field testing electrically-driven vehicles with both batteries alone and fuel cells each of which they also plan to launch at the beginning of the decade. While it may well be that all Mercedes models in 2015 will be capable of running petroleum free, the reality is that many - if not most - will still be using fossil fuels much of the time. That may come in the form of coal for electricity, natural gas reformed into hydrogen, or petroleum fuels blended with biofuels. But you have to start somewhere.

[Source: The Sun]

According to Ford's President of the Americas, Mark Fields, plug-in hybrid vehicles need to be a "national priority" and the United States government should be offering assistance for their development. Fields goes on to say that the governments of competing nations are funding the development of the technology needed to introduce PHEVs, especially batteries. As it stands, most hybrid batteries are produced in factories overseas by companies outside the U.S. If this trend continues, Fields suggests that a continued purchase of these batteries would merely be shifting our foreign dependence on oil to a foreign dependence on batteries. For this reason, the Ford executive calls on increased funding from Washington for high-tech batteries as well as tax breaks and incentives in order to give consumers additional reason to purchase the fuel-saving technology. We would think that high gas prices are effectively doing just that, but it is true that the tax breaks for hybrid vehicles may have contributed to some early sales.

Field's speech, which was made at the Plug-In Electric Vehicles 2008: What Role for Washington? conference on July 11, is a pretty interesting read, and you can find the entire thing pasted after the break.

While Toyota CEO Katsuaki Watanabe was in Tokyo talking up plans to start production of lithium ion batteries at the Panasonic EV Energy joint venture late next year, an American Toyota Exec was dampening expectations for the PHEVs in Washington. Bill Reinert, national manager of the Advanced Technology Group participated in a panel at the Google.org Plug-In Vehicle Conference. Reinert reiterated that while many plug-in proponents emphasize the potentential for 100mpg performance from PHEVs, not everyone will approach that.

Just as with current hybrid vehicles, the fuel efficiency of plug-ins will vary greatly depending on driving conditions. Reinert mentioned that acts like accelerating onto freeways and general real world driving will cut into the theoretical electric only range and the maximum mileage. This will be particularly true with so-called conversion PHEVs like the Prius, the Ford Escape and the upcoming Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid. These electric drive systems in these vehicles don't have sufficient power to propel the vehicle through the full spectrum of real world performance conditions. That means the engines will be starting up relatively frequently. Only when dedicated plug in vehicles with motors designed for full speed drive operation arrive will those kinds of mileage expectations be met more consistently. For more on this subject check out the interview we did with GM's Pete Savagian a few months ago.

[Source: Automotive News - Sub. req'd]

The non-profit branch of the an obscure web-search company that goes by the name of Google.org has been investing in a lot of green technology over the last few years. Next week in Washington, D.C., Google.org is sponsoring a conference to discuss what the US government's role should be in promoting plug-in electric drive vehicles. The Brookings institution will be the co-sponsor for the event that begins on Wed. June 11. The event will include a series of panel discussions on various aspects of electric drive vehicles such as the current state of the vehicle technology, the effect on the grid, and federal policy towards EVs. Senators Orrin Hatch and John Kerry will both address the gathering at the Thursday morning breakfast. Mark Fields, Chelsea Sexton, Troy Clarke and Felix Kramer are among the participants. There should be some interesting discussions going on, particularly considering that Congress is currently considering tax credits for plug-in hybrid vehicles.

[Source: Google.org]

EnerDel's lithium-titanate battery has been independently tested by the Center for Transportation Research of the
Illinois-based Argonne National Laboratory. For the tests, a stock Toyota Prius had its nickel metal hydride battery pack replaced with a new 1kWh lithium ion unit from EnerDel. No problems were reported, despite the fact that no additional cooling modifications were made to the vehicle or battery pack. Additionally, a test was run which was intended to predict what the battery pack would be capable of if the Prius were converted to a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV). Test results were promising, with the EnerDel-equipped Prius achieving 77.41 miles per gallon on the city test. Although these results are just an approximation of what a PHEV Prius could offer, they are still promising. Also of note is the fact that internal resistance of the pack was reduced by sixty-seven percent over the stock Prius pack.

According to the press release pasted after the break, EnerDel's pack could be half the size of the Prius' stock pack while still offering the same performance, meaning that a similar-sized pack as stock would offer twice the power potential. Thanks for the tip, Jan!

A new four year plug-in hybrid test program is kicking off this spring in Quebec City, Quebec with involvement from battery supplier EnerSys, financial cooperative Desjardins and Laval University. EnerSys is a supplier of industrial batteries and its subsidiary ModEnergy will be supplying lithium ion packs to Laval researchers. The team will work to optimize the performance and durability of packs when installed in vehicles. Ultimately, if the initial phase of the project is successful, between 10 and 50 privately-owned plug-in hybrids will be put into service. The participants will evaluate the performance and efficiency as well as the financial aspects of operating plug-in hybrids. This will be a very interesting study to watch over the next few years because it may tell a lot about the real viability of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles in cold climates. My own personal experience with hybrids in cold temperatures has been less than exceptional. Quebec City in the winter is one of the coldest major cities in North America.

[Source: EnerSys]

Tuesday night the PBS science program NOVA will feature an Earth Day look at "the Car of the Future." WGBH, the Boston PBS station that produces NOVA sent us an advance copy of the show to take a look at. Tom and Ray Magliozzi, who are perhaps better known to fans of the NPR show Car Talk as Click and Clack, travel the world from Iceland to China and back to their alma mater at MIT. The "Tappet Brothers" are definitely an acquired taste and not everyone is fan of their shtick on the radio show. However, those who have not acquired that taste need not worry as their presence in Car of the Future is actually fairly minimal. John Lithgow does most of the narration tying the various segments together.

For those that are regular readers of our little corner of the web, most of what is discussed in the show will be familiar territory. Nonetheless the show is still a good primer on all of the various technologies that are being worked on including cellulosic biofuels, batteries, plug-in hybrids, weight reduction and more. The guys visit with Amory Lovins at the Rocky Mountain Institute, Martin Eberhard at Tesla (while he was still there), Andrew Frank at UC Davis and plenty of others. During a segment filmed during the introduction of the Chevy Volt last year, Tom and Ray speak with GM VP Energy and Environment Beth Lowery about choice. Keep reading after the jump.

Update: Check your local listings for time, but NOVA typically runs at 8 or 9 pm on most PBS stations.

Last year, Google made some waves when they announced the RechargeIT project to convert a fleet of Toyota Priuses and Ford Escape hybrids to plug-in capability. The company has just issued their first progress report on the program, and the results may be disappointing for those promoting plug-in conversions. Right now the only way to get a plug-in hybrid is to buy an off-the shelf model like the Prius or Escape and than install a $10-15,000 conversion kit. Unfortunately, as we learned from a recent interview with GM's Pete Savagian, a conversion PHEV provides a limited additional benefit over a conventional parallel hybrid because the motors typically don't have enough power to drive the vehicle under most conditions without the engine turning on.

The other issue is that as fuel efficiency increases, the incremental savings in fuel use actually decrease. This is more apparent if you use the European units of fuel consumption which is measured in L/100km. If consumption is reduced from 12L/100km (19.6mpg) to 6L/100km (39.2mpg) you would save 6L on a 100km trip. Doubling mileage again going to 3L/100km (78.2mpg) only saves an additional 3L. This is apparent when you take an already efficient car like the Prius which starts at 44.6mpg and increase it to the 66.2mpg that Google saw. The result over 12,000 miles of annual driving is 88 gallons of fuel saved. At $3/gal, that's $158/year (after factoring in electricity costs). At that rate the $15,000 conversion would take 95 years to recover the cost. Ouch.

Google points out that most of the driving was on short runs where the engine often runs early in the drive to power certain vehicle subsystems. Longer runs would increase the mileage further, but you still have the issue of diminishing returns. With gas at $5/gal and a conversion cost of $10,000, the payback drops to a mere thirty years. Until vehicles are actually engineered from the ground up as PHEVs and mass produced to bring down cost, the cost benefits simply won't be realized by people doing conversions. Reduced emissions and oil use, though, should still take place.

[Source: Google.org via CNet]

The National Research Council (NRC) has finished conducting research into the possibility of powering vehicles using hydrogen fuel cells and other alternatives. Despite mixed reviews, the report suggests that even without ready solutions to quite a number of major issues, taxpayer-funded research into hydrogen "is justified by its potentially enormous benefits to the nation."

Also in the report was a suggestion that too much money is being spent on reducing the cost of lightweight materials, and some of it "should be redistributed to areas of higher potential payoff." Interesting ... like what? Could be plug-in hybrids, which they suggest are not being researched with enough verve. Not surprisingly, the target date being thrown around for hydrogen cars (2020) is now seen as a bit unrealistic; the NRC sees 2030-2035 as a more likely possibility. The question that remains is whether we'll even need hydrogen fuel cells by then, what with battery technology potentially getting good and cheap enough. View the entire press release after the break.

[Source: NRC via Automotive News (sub. req'd)]